The Dinokeng scenarios at Wits by Dr. Mamphela Ramphela

I sadly missed the lecture by the world renowned economist and public intellectual Joseph Stiglitz at Wits. I wish I could have been there, it was an unavoidable tragedy of life I guess! Who knows whether I will ever be able to see the man alive, anyway…

So I was fortunate enough to listen to Dr. Mamphela Ramphela expounding on the Dinokeng Scenarios. For the uninitiated, the Dinokeng Scenarios are a set of possible scenarios that predict the future of South Africa by 2020. It is a work of team of that comprises 35 leaders from civil society and government, political parties, business, public administration, trade unions, religious groups, academia and the media. The initiative is being sponsored by Old Mutual and Nedbank

I had the privilege of talking to one of the dedicated organisers of this initiative; Bra. Ish Mkhabela, just before the presentation started. He passionately explained to me how they have been hard at work, identifying this diverse group of notable individuals who could add value to the scenario planning process that brought about what is now known as the Dinokeng Scenarios.

Dinokeng is the name of the town where the team met to develop their scenarios, it is a Sotho word that means “a place of rivers”, an apt metaphor of the process which could signify a meeting of rivers of thoughts.

The team was brought together by six convenors, all of whom are actively engaged in our national issues according to the website. They are Dr Mamphela Ramphele, who chairs the convenor group, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Mr Bob Head, Ms Graça Machel, Dr Vincent Maphai and Mr Rick Menell.

In a nutshell, Dr. Ramphele outlined the three possible future scenarios that South Africa could possibly find itself in by 2020;
1. Walk Apart : (Doom and Gloom - in this scenario, by 2020 we will have a corrupt and ineffective state with a distrusting and self protective citizenry that is disengaged)
2. Walk Behind ( Not So Lekker – in this scenario we have an interventionist and directive state with a compliant and dependent while still disengaged. In this scenario the party “rules” as opposed to “governing”.)
3. Walk together (Ideal state – in this scenario we have a collaborative and enabling state which has a vibrant and engaged citizenry)

My impression is that these scenarios are both powerful and a perfect start to initiate an honest debate within South Africa concerning its current state. South Africa is currently in the “Walk Apart” scenario; despite what the ANC would have us believe, we have a collapsing state machinery which has been unable to deliver on its mandate to the public. We have a citizenry that is led by party activists who determine policy. Sections of the population feel left out of the political process and politicians are not accountable.

However I do worry about the fact that the Dinokeng Scenario process could end at this point without it being internalised by all South Africans. I also fear that it may be construed to be elitist if it does not reach far enough. The composition of the team should be enlarged to include more community based leaders which in my opinion will be instrumental to the wider acceptance of the ideas. I am aware of the difficulty of getting everyone involved from the onset; however we should never fail to try.

This document is by no means an authoritative manual about the state of South Africa, I regard it as a very honest shot at it. I therefore embrace it, its observations ring true and I am sure the leaders of this country are being made aware that the citizenry is still optimistic, it wants to be involved, and it is currently not happy with the current state of affairs.

A brief encounter with William Mervyn Gumede

William Gumede is the famous writer of the contentious but yet riveting book called “Thabo Mbeki and the battle for the soul of the ANC”. There is no doubt in my mind that he is one of the best political writers and public commentators we have in South Africa.

I personally got to hear about him when his book shot into the public limelight, after his book allegedly upset the former president Thabo Mbeki. He gave a scathing analysis of Thabo Mbeki and his role in the current ANC. He was called names and there were allegations that he left the country in a hurry as some people really did not like the way he “attacked” Thabo Mbeki.

He subsequently published a second edition of the same book with some corrections, which I never got to read. He kept a low profile to the South African public during the time he was overseas, however I kept following some of the articles he published at various influential publications online.

The SA public got to see the awkwardly bearded Gumede on our TV channels during the national elections. He was spot on as usual, what was different though is that some of us heard him speak for the first time, having encountered him as a writer all the time. It suffices to say that his accent is…well, very unique, funny would be the word. I am giggling as I write this line.

I was however privileged to have a brief chat with the man as we both made our way out of the Auditorium at the Wits Business School after having listened to a wonderful scenario planning presentation entitled Dinokeng Scenarios by Dr.Mamphela Ramphela.

I took the opportunity to ask him about his forthcoming book entitled “The Democracy Gap – Africa’s Wasted Years”. I was under the impression that it was already available in South African bookshops. He explained to me that the book will only be in South Africa in about 3 months time as there are delays which are related to the fact that it is being published by American publishers. He was very friendly and approachable, but I still got smile at that accent after our cordial talk. It sounded much better in real life than on TV. I can’t wait for the book; he is simply brilliant as political commentator and a writer, and the title is very provocative.

Dr.Paul Ngobeni has been fired by UCT

I was not completely shocked but nevertheles suprised that UCT has parted ways with Dr. Paul Ngobeni. This is a man who is currently in the headlines for being part of the Zuma Brains Trust, a group of well known "thinkers" who supported the cause of Jacob Zuma during his difficult legal battles.

He is also in the headlines recently for advocating for the appointment of the embattled Cape Judge President, John Hlophe to be appointed to the constitutional court. He is feisty man, who fights for his point of view. I was suprised that UCT appointed him into their law faculty given his reputation in the US where he studied and practised law. He apparently had 7 judgements of misconduct to his name while in the US and there are mentions about his fugitive status, which i cannot really vouch for except that i can say...check this out.

Now I must admit that I enjoy listening to Paul Ngobeni. He makes some good points and he scratches hard, sometimes where it hurts the most. I was however suspicious of his surfacing from the US to suddenly being the number one supporter of JZ, it looked very self-serving and self-promoting, making the right noises, populist noises at the time. But he won the day, his side won, JZ is now the president of this country. When it comes his stance John Hlophe case I am completely against his views. Forcing Judge Hlophe to the highest court in the land simply to spite racists can never be good for the judiciary.

Ngobeni has already accused the principal of UCT of hypocrisy and some of his old colleagues of being a racist gang. Now we know that UCT and many other such institutions are not perfect, but one has to be careful who is crying foul and why. Paul Ngobeni is the type that digs up conspiracy theories that require a lot of concentration before one can agree. He is interesting but shoots from the hip when you least expect it. He brands people racist too quickly for my liking, men such as these make me very suspicious.

But I tell you one thing, whenever this guy is on radio, i can't help but tune in. He is well spoken and real fun, seriously. However on TV he looks funny, his face is detached or lost at times, overweight, looks very subdued until he speaks. He is here to stay, I am sure there are a lot of politicians who will be clamouring for Paul Ngobeni to be on their side.

Confederations Cup 2009 spectacle

You would swear I have gone into hibernation, funny enough this time around I have not been. All my free time after work has been spent largely on soccer! Yes, you guessed it, the bug has bitten, my hopeless romance with the beautiful game has seen me running all over Gauteng to see the world stars of soccre. They are all here, and I have the privilege of seeing them in flesh and blood. It is simply amazing!

On the opening day of the Confederation Cup I was at Ellis Park, I witnessed as Bafana took on Iraq, sitting next to me was my wife and two of our close friends. What a beautiful atmosphere. Unfortunately it was a game of missed chances but man, what an electrifying atmosphere, it was the only place to be on this planet at that moment. Our national coach got it all wrong I argue, why such a defensive stratergy against a team that is not known to be such a force. Water under the bridge, we blew it BUT you can't take away the joy of those Vuvuzela blowing soccer mad South Africans on that day.

The second game that Sunday in Rustenburg was a different ball game. The mighty Torres scored a quick hattrick as Spain utterly destroyed New Zealand by five goals. What a spectacle. I watched this game on TV.

Then on Monday I was at home watching the most electrifying perfomance of the day, Brazil narrowly beating the reigning African Kings, Egypt by 4 goals to 3 in Bloemfontein. What an atmosphere. After the game i did not know who those soccer fanatics were supporting, Egypt or Brazil! It was a feast of goals, noise and excitement, I wished this game was the opening game. I fell in love with the Pharaohs that night. Zidan was a marvel to watch.The beautiful game won the day.

In the evening i was at the stadiums again watching Italy humbling the US. It was not the most electrifying display by the Azzuri, who I went to see specifically. What a schorcer from Rossi and what beautiful trickery by Pirlo.

On Wednesday i took a break and watched from home. Not such a great game between Spain and Iraq, but a much improved Iraq nevertheless. The European kings extended their unbeaten run.

Then later that night it was the do-or-die game between South Africa and New Zealand. Bafana needed a win to keep their hope alive and the boys delivered a sweet 2-0 victory. This game was in Bloemfontein and the crowds loved it as ussual in that part of South Africa. They are the most passionate soccer fans this country has. Its marvelous watching them, the world is yet to see a better display of fans supporting their team.

On Thursday I was back at it...2 games, 2 cities, all in one day. First it was the USA vs. Brazil game in Pretoria. This was always going to be an easy game for Brazil. I just had to see the legends with my naked eyes. Dunga the coach, Robinho, Kaka, Fabiano...oh the list goes on. They delivered some good moments, we all simply loved it.

Then we had to rush out of the stadium, we had to cross over to Joburg to see the critical Italy vs. Egypt game. The Azzuri needed it, Carnavaro was brought in to add to the urgency. Unbelievable line of stars, right infront of us! The Egyptians rewarded all of us who hoped for an African delight. 1-0 the beat the Italians, the legendary Gatusso even dropped his pants for a while to the amusement of those watching. You would bet that there were actually so many Bantu Egyptians...our Arab brothers were at home, they lost Zidan to a hamstring pull on that night, an event that proved fatal later on. I rank this day as my best Confed Cup day, my soccer appetite was done fairly just.

The Saturday was the final day for Group A, it was either the battle for the second spot...It was either Bafana or Iraq joining Spain in the semis. Bafana lost to Spain predictably, but not after a good fight. Spain shattered the Brazilian record of the longest unbeaten streak as well as number of wins on that night. But it was no plain sailing, Villa missed a penalty, saved by the dependable Khune of Bafana. But he came back a minute later to stamp his authority as the Spanish goal king. Villa also managed to shatter the corner flag in a frenzy of celebration. I thought he would get a yellow card for that, but no cigar for me.

Iraq faltered on the night, they drew against New Zealand, handing them their first Confed point ever. I was amazed at how the All Whites, who were dressed in black that night relished the moment. It almost did not make sense until the commentator explained the significance of that draw for the New Zealanders. The significance of the draw was even bigger for South Africans...it handed us a ticket to the semis. We loved it, even though we knew that we were most likely going to meet Brazil in the semis. But no one cared on that day.

The Sunday was perhaps the most dramatic of the day. It started off with the reports that the Egyptian team was robbed in their hotel rooms. Then a tabloid broke the story that actually, the African kings actually invited a few prostitutes from the famous Oxford road (infamous for prostitutes) down the road from their exclusive hotel. Their performance on the night was dismal, they looked lost without Zidan and they got a hiding (3-0) from the unfancied USA. Then an even greater surprise happened when Brazil beat Italy 3-0 as well in the biggest game of the tournament so far. A huge miracle had happened, the USA lept ahead of both Italy and Egypt to join Brazil as group B's semi finalist. The US had similar goal difference with Italy but scored more goals than Italy. The dark horses of the tournament pulled off a miracle.

Tonight we will be watching the first of the semis, USA vs. Spain, it is no question that Spain will win this game, but this competition has sprung surprises already. On Thursday night we get to watch Bafana try their luck against Brazil. I have no presumptions here, Brazil will most likely win, but hey...Bafana has the supporters all behind them. Maybe, just maybe...